This had become something of a pattern since my experiment began—whenever I started talking about gambling with a couple, the woman would almost invariably tune out or recoil, while her husband leaned in attentively, eager to hear more. The implicated included NBA players and a retired Hall of Fame point guard turned head coach. On October 23, the FBI announced the arrests of more than 30 people in a pair of interlocking gambling schemes.
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Two years later, Congress passed the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act, which effectively banned most sports betting outside Nevada. High-profile scandals—the White Sox World Series fix in 1919, the Mafia-instigated point-shaving scheme at Boston College in 1978—had convinced commissioners that betting posed an existential threat to organized sports. In 1631, Puritans banned games of chance in Plymouth Colony “under pain of punishment.” In 1794, a Pennsylvania law prohibited “cockfighting, cards, dice, billiards, bowling, shuffleboard, horse racing, or any other type of gambling.” Ever since the advent of sports, humans have found ways to lose money gambling on them.
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When quarterback Drake Maye scrambled through a blizzard for a game-clinching first down in the AFC championship—my son and I jumping up from the couch in a frenzy of high fives and enraptured whoops—it felt a little like destiny. I had grown up in Massachusetts at the dawn of the Brady-Belichick dynasty; now I was sharing in the joy of New England fandom with my son, who perched next to me for every game. Despite my assurances to the editor in chief, the playoffs did not go well. In 1907, a Unitarian minister, writing in The Atlantic, warned against “speculation.” “The long and costly experience of mankind bears uniform testimony against gambling,” Charles F. Dole wrote.
Tonko came to the cause four years ago, when he saw that the social-media feeds of his younger aides were filled with ads for sports-betting apps. (In October, while ESPN was covering the gambling-ring indictments, producers scrubbed the screen of references to its own online sportsbook.) If trust in the integrity of the game disappears, then interest is likely to follow. (The indictment alleges that the scheme began with rigging Chinese professional-basketball games, then spread to the NCAA.) That same month, the Ultimate Fighting Championship canceled a bout after reports of suspicious betting activity.
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The tailspin began on a Thursday night, with a Lions-Cowboys game. “Give it time,” he said; three years from now, things might be so bad that Americans will be clamoring for regulation. As the hazards of ubiquitous gambling become harder to ignore, Tonko expects political support to grow. But he noted that his colleagues do seem to be growing more interested in the issue. In Kansas, industry representatives plied lawmakers with steak dinners, premium whiskey, and cigars in a private club as they pushed favorable tax legislation. But Tonko suspects that at least some of the resistance has to do with money.
The books are constantly adjusting their lines to keep users evenly balanced on each side of a given bet, in order to limit the risk of lopsided payouts, which would cut into their profits. We rolled up to the BYU tailgate party—fancy bespoke sodas instead of beer; a canned-food drive in place of keg stands—and spent the hours before the game eating barbecue and taking pictures with Cosmo, the beloved Cougar mascot. Like any good father, I had made a project in recent years of indoctrinating my young kids in the sports fandom of my alma mater. In late September, my family piled into our Honda Odyssey and drove to Greenville, North Carolina, for the Brigham Young–East Carolina football game.
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But the great gambling experiment that we’ve embarked on is bigger than the current president. It is perhaps not a coincidence that the casinofication of America is taking place while the Oval Office is occupied by a former casino operator. “People don’t lie when money’s involved,” Tarek Mansour, a Kalshi co-founder and its CEO, told The New York Times. But once I started playing around with the markets, it became clear that insider trading was a feature, not a bug.
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Are you staying up late to watch West Coast games with teams whose rosters you know nothing about? Are you going to sleep and waking up thinking about your bets? Bettors who start spending more time or money than usual on the app will receive a notification alerting them to the anomaly—hence the Reality Check alerts I had impatiently dismissed. Carton went to rehab in Arizona, spent a year in prison, and, when he got out, started counseling compulsive bettors and speaking at schools about the dangers of gambling addiction.
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Gambling had made us all care much more about the games, but it had also atomized us—taking the last and purest expression of American monoculture and turning it into a hyper-individualized, every-man-for-himself portfolio of micro-bets. Are you “chasing”—making reckless new bets to win back the money you lost? Many of the young men Carton works with started out betting on football games with their dads. Since 2018, when the sports-betting ban was overturned, internet searches for phrases like Am I addicted to gambling? I was listening to gambling podcasts in the shower and spending my Sunday afternoons watching five football games at a time—one on my phone and four on the TV’s split screen. The books effectively charge you about 4.5 percent for every bet you place, he explained, which means it isn’t enough to win 50.1 percent of the time; you have to win 52.5 percent of your bets just to break even, and that’s before taxes.
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